2006 Hurricane Season
If we look at the perigee calculator for 2005, and compare with the timing of three of the other nine top weather stories for the year, according to Accuweather, we see that the perigee followed the full moon by just 12 hours in August, by a day and a half in September, and by 3 days in October. Hurricane Katrina followed the full moon in August, Rita followed the full moon in September, and Wilma followed the full moon in October. Now looking ahead to this year, we see that the perigee occurs 31 hours before the full moon in August, within eight hours on September 8th, follows the full moon by 13 hours in October, and by a day and 13 hours in November. You will note that hurricane season peaks statistically around September 6th. I hate to say it, but it looks like another bad year for late summer storms. While the "season" technically begins June 1st, I suggest that the storms will not begin in earnest until late August, and that they will continue into December. You can keep up with the day to day facts about the tropics at Hurricane Central from the Weather Channel. Update: The tides 'bottomed out' in mid-June, so the dry half of the cycle (the back side of the curve) is coinciding with the heat of the summer this year. Tropical strom Alberto and Beryl each have followed a full moon, one in June and the other in July. Note that Beryl just 'grazed' New England and Newfoundland, and that it did not result in a tidal surge due to occuring in a low part of the over all tidal cycle. TS Chris formed on August first, but failed to develop. The moon was full on the 9th and was followed by the lunar perigee 31 hours later. Saomai became a super typhoon on Wednesday (9th) but has since weakened very slightly down to the equivalent of a strong category 4 hurricane just as it closed in on the coast of China. Debby was declared a TS on the new moon on August 23. Ernesto formed on August 25 and developed into the first Atlantic hurricane of 2006 on the 27th. The seperation between the full moon and the perigee is 6 hours in September and 13 hours in October. I believe that we can expect storms to follow each of these events, and that they will increase in intensity until October. I predict that the worst hurricane of the season will form at the full moon in October. I'm putting my money on a landfall date of 10/15. Florence became a TS on Sept 5th, and as the tides peak for the year is taking aim at Bermuda. Florence intensified into the second hurricane of the Atlantic season Sunday as it headed for Bermuda, while a 6.0r earthquake hits the Gulf of Mexico. The pace of storm formation is beginning to pick up as TS Gordon formed on 9/11; TS Helene formed on 9/13. Both of these have developed into hurricanes but neither threatens the US mainland. The new moon on Sept 22 was a solar eclipse and occured within 4 hours of the autumnal equinox; it coincided with snow in Colorado and tornados in the southeastern US. TS Isaac formed on Sept 28th, and looks to be headed for Newfoundland. Isaac, the ninth named storm of the season, developed into the fifth hurricane but has been downgraded, and is still moving toward Newfoundland. After having made an initial forecast for a scary number of hurricanes, then revising it half-way through the season, William Gray now says that the "Atlantic season will produce just two more tropical storms and no more "major" hurricanes"; we'll se how he does. I still expect a huricane to develop after the Full Moon in October. Well, as it turns out, I was close on the day of this event, but wrong on the nature of it. On October 12th Buffalo saw a record early snow storm, as did Detroit. Winter 2006-7

2006 Hurricane Season

If we look at the perigee calculator for 2005, and compare with the timing of three of the other nine top weather stories for the year, according to Accuweather, we see that the perigee followed the full moon by just 12 hours in August, by a day and a half in September, and by 3 days in October. Hurricane Katrina followed the full moon in August, Rita followed the full moon in September, and Wilma followed the full moon in October.

Now looking ahead to this year, we see that the perigee occurs 31 hours before the full moon in August, within eight hours on September 8th, follows the full moon by 13 hours in October, and by a day and 13 hours in November. You will note that hurricane season peaks statistically around September 6th.

I hate to say it, but it looks like another bad year for late summer storms. While the "season" technically begins June 1st, I suggest that the storms will not begin in earnest until late August, and that they will continue into December.
You can keep up with the day to day facts about the tropics at Hurricane Central from the Weather Channel.

Update: The tides 'bottomed out' in mid-June, so the dry half of the cycle (the back side of the curve) is coinciding with the heat of the summer this year.
Tropical strom Alberto and Beryl each have followed a full moon, one in June and the other in July. Note that Beryl just 'grazed' New England and Newfoundland, and that it did not result in a tidal surge due to occuring in a low part of the over all tidal cycle.
TS Chris formed on August first, but failed to develop. The moon was full on the 9th and was followed by the lunar perigee 31 hours later. Saomai became a super typhoon on Wednesday (9th) but has since weakened very slightly down to the equivalent of a strong category 4 hurricane just as it closed in on the coast of China.
Debby was declared a TS on the new moon on August 23. Ernesto formed on August 25 and developed into the first Atlantic hurricane of 2006 on the 27th.

The seperation between the full moon and the perigee is 6 hours in September and 13 hours in October. I believe that we can expect storms to follow each of these events, and that they will increase in intensity until October. I predict that the worst hurricane of the season will form at the full moon in October. I'm putting my money on a landfall date of 10/15.
Florence became a TS on Sept 5th, and as the tides peak for the year is taking aim at Bermuda. Florence intensified into the second hurricane of the Atlantic season Sunday as it headed for Bermuda, while a 6.0r earthquake hits the Gulf of Mexico.
The pace of storm formation is beginning to pick up as TS Gordon formed on 9/11; TS Helene formed on 9/13. Both of these have developed into hurricanes but neither threatens the US mainland.
The new moon on Sept 22 was a solar eclipse and occured within 4 hours of the autumnal equinox; it coincided with snow in Colorado and tornados in the southeastern US.
TS Isaac formed on Sept 28th, and looks to be headed for Newfoundland. Isaac, the ninth named storm of the season, developed into the fifth hurricane but has been downgraded, and is still moving toward Newfoundland.
After having made an initial forecast for a scary number of hurricanes, then revising it half-way through the season, William Gray now says that the "Atlantic season will produce just two more tropical storms and no more "major" hurricanes"; we'll se how he does. I still expect a huricane to develop after the Full Moon in October.
Well, as it turns out, I was close on the day of this event, but wrong on the nature of it. On October 12th Buffalo saw a record early snow storm, as did Detroit.

Winter 2006-7