Tides and the Weather Cont'd
Hindcasting: The Analogue Method Analogues form the basis for all long-range forecasts. To be sucessful, it is essential that the forecaster be able to recognize "regularities and patterns" in whatever phenomenon one is working with. The method, in it's current state, consists of building a data base and analyzing it, in order to try to uncover sequential and recurring patterns that can be used to predict the phenomenon in the future (if that be possible). This "Pattern Matching" technique is identical to what we call the "hindcasting" method of astro-meterorology, which entails examining the astronomical configurations that occur at the times of certain events of phenomenon, and projecting any pattern found into the future. Astro-meteorology is a study of significance that depends on both objective and subjective techniques; utilizing empirical, largely analogue methods. Accepting that what happens on the Earth in regard to meterorological and seismic activity can be effected by the positions and motions of the sun, moon, and planets, astro-meteorologists attempt to extrtact moments of "astronomical significance" from the flux of time, by identifying "significant" astronomical configurations. Please note that long-range forecasts generated by astro-meteorological research should not be seen as competing with that from people in other areas of concern, but rather an attempt to help extend the range of techniques and procedures at the forecaster's disposal; as well as helping to strengthen confidence in popular analogues, or to indicate where they might be unreliable or ineffective. 1974: Danger from the Tides Thirty years ago (January 7, 1974), both Time and Newsweek magazines published articles, at the urging of Research Scientist Fergus J. Wood of the National Ocean Survey, warning of the "Danger from the Tides". In the Time article, we see a phrase that will be echoed time and again, after the mainstream media picks up on Wood's ideas, "a relatively rare combination of circumstances". The daily tides that can be witnessed at the shoreline become exaggerated at the new and full moons each month (known collectively as syzygy, when the sun, moon and the earth all lie in one plane; if they are in one line it is an eclipse), and these "spring" tides are further magnified when the syzygy occurs at the same time as the moon's close approach to the earth (it's perigee). The highest tides occur when a new or full moon is close to the earth when the earth is also close to the sun (the perhelion occurs on January 3rd), during the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere. Both articles warn of the possibility of coastal flooding around January 8 and February 6-7 (1974), and refer to the March (6-7) 1962 East Coast storm that killed 40 and caused $500 million worth of damage as corroberative evidence of Wood's thesis. The East Coast of the US saw offshore winds and high pressure on both dates, while giant waves pounded the California shores undermining beach homes on January 8th; England and Wales experienced widespread flooding on January 11-12 and February 9-11. High Tides, High Winds Wood's primary focus was tidal flooding of coastlines, and he knew that the tides themselves were not the problem, but rather the chances that the exaggerated tides would be driven inland by strong onshore winds. As a footnote to his warnings on 1974, Wood pointed out that while we cannot be sure that onshore winds would accompany the high tides, storms had accompanied high tides in above average numbers in the past. While he stopped short of proclaiming that the tides caused the high winds, this is what he was hinting at. Others have since spoken of tides in the atmospohere to explain the phenomena. Wood had compiled a list of 30 hurricanes occuring nearly concurrently with perigean spring tides (between 1635 and 1974), including the Galveston Hurricane which witnessed the greatest loss of lives in American history (as of 1978) on September 8, 1900, to back his proposals. Fergus Wood's research focuses our attention on the changing dimensions of the sun - moon - earth geometric relationship, and points out that while we cannot always be sure that meteorological disturbances will accompany high tides, it is worth the time to note the times of possible trouble. Upon researching the times of past storm events, Wood announced a "seemingly above average" concurence of high tides and meteorological disturbances. 1978 In 1978, the celestial circumstances of 1974 were repeating themselves, almost exactly. The moon reached it's perigee on January 8 just 16 hours before the new moon on January 9, resulting in a storm that swept from Virginia to Maine, with winds in excess of 70 miles per hour. On the west coast California beaches were hit by severe tidal flooding. A month later the perigee and new moon were seperated by 42 hours, as the US saw what was called the Storm of the Century, the Blizzard of '78 which stretched from Maine to Texas. Boston saw the most snow in 24 hours, the most snow in a single storm and the most snow on the ground. Wood's ideas began to take hold in the group consciousness and books began to be published popularizing the perigee-syzygy notion. By now though, the concept became broader so as to include meteorological events in general, especially winter weather. Perigee-Syzygee Coincidences 1979-1999 In preparing his table of perigee-syzygy coincidences in four centuries ( THE STRATEGIC ROLE OF PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES IN NAUTICAL HISTORY AND NORTH AMERICAN COASTAL FLOODING, 1635-1976", published by NOAA in 1978.) Fergus Wood listed eighty-four between 1979 and 1999, with fourteen identified as "proxigean spring tides", and three identified as "extreme proxigean spring tides". Recall that Wood's focus in this book was Coastal Flooding, and that his list was to serve as a warning about high hazard days, since "proxigean tides can produce severe coastal flooding if accompanied by onshore winds". He was careful to point out that while he could not predict "whether strong onshore winds will occur within several days of the unusually high tides of these dates", "the seemingly above-average frequency of such concurrent events" in the past was a cause for concern. In other words, Wood was saying that his findings about past coastal flooding events coinciding with proxigean spring tides provided corroborative evidence for his thesis and warranted an alert; and he was willing to test his hypothosis by publishing the list of extreme future tide timings. Here is that list linked to scanned images of documents which relate to each date (Linked pages will open in a new window.) Recall that the extreme perigees take place only during the months surrounding January 3 in the Northern Hemisphere, when the Earth is nearest the Sun each year. Note that I have broadened the scope to include severe meteorological events in general. Proxigean Spring Tides 1979-89 January 28, 1979 - Note that the perigee and syzygy are close to one another (timewise) for three to four months in a row, so while the "peak" event was in January, they were also very close in late December of 78, resulting in the "End of the Year '78 Storm. January 27 saw heavy rains in the southeast, and the 28th a snow storm on the eastern seaboard. October 23, 1980 - Recall that Wood stated that repeated flooding events often occur within consecutive anomalistic month, and that certain statistical relationship seems to hold between the most severe cases of tidal flooding and the second or third alignment of a given perigee-syzygy series. In December 1980, the third alignment of the series resulted in light snow, but low temps of the century for Christmas. December 10, 1981 - NOAA supervising meteorologist in Washington DC, Malcolm Reid described the winter of 1981-2 thusly: "The prolonged winter of 1976-7 was more devastating economically, but this has been an unusually harsh period with it's greatest intensity in the six weeks before mid-February. It began in December, intensified in January, and continued into February, March and April. Note that the first perigee-syzygee coincidence occurs on December 12th of 2004! February 17, 1984 - The coldest December on record was followed by the seventh warmest February for the country as a whole since reliable record keeping began in 1931. November 12, 1985 - This year only the first month of the winter season (December) was characterized by widespread cold over the US; the only snowstorm spread over New England occured on the 12th to 14th of that month. December 30, 1986 - The first week in January '87 saw flooding on the west coast and a powerful winter storm in the east. The news media finally bwgins to add mentions of the tides in their reports about meteorological events. October 14, 1989 - In September Hurricane Hugo forms on September 10th, and reaches it's maximum intensity as the full moon (15th) is just 24 hours before the lunar peigee on the 16th, and makes landfall at South Carolina on the 22nd. The World Series Earthquake in California occured on Oct 17th, which was followed by flooding in the southeast US early in November, and record cold beginning December 12th, when the moon was at perigee on the 10th and Full on the 12th. [The media really piles it on about the tides following Hugo.] Extreme Proxigean Spring Tides 1990-93 December 2,1990 - The first storm of the winter formed on December 2. January 19, 1992 - First Texas gets rain at the Solstice (Dec 21); nine inches in four days in San Antonio; Mt Etna begins erupting; Isreal and lebanon see blizzards at the beginning of the new year; there is an Atlantic Coast storm the first week of January, Heavy snow in the southeast and northeast on the 18th; and deadly storms on the west coast on Feb 12. March 8, 1993 - The full moon and perigee are seperated by 1 hour and eleven minutes on the 8th; The Superstorm of the Century occurs March 12-13. Historical Winter Storms 1962-1999 The following is a list of Historical Winter Storms, taken from the Weather Channel web site, along with the appropriate astronomical data for that time. 1962 Mar 3-7 Both the perigee and the new moon occured on Mar 6. 1967 Jan 26-7 The moon was full Jan26 and was at perigee Jan 28. 1969 Feb 8-10 The perigee occured Feb 14 and the moon was new on Feb 16. 1978 Feb 5-7 Perigee Feb 5 - New Moon Feb 7. 1979 Feb 22 Per Feb 25 - New Feb 26 1983 Feb 12 New Feb 13 - *Apogee Feb 10 [see footnote] 1991 Oct 30 Full Oct 23 - Per Oct 27 Called the Perfect Storm. 1993 Mar 12-3 Per Full Mar 8 1998 Jan 4-9 New Dec 29 - Per Jan 3 Extreme Cold January 1982 In 1982, the perigee (Jan 8) once again coincided closely with the full moon (Jan 9) with a result that was described as the Coldest Day of the Century. Continue

Tides and the Weather Cont'd

Hindcasting: The Analogue Method
Analogues form the basis for all long-range forecasts. To be sucessful, it is essential that the forecaster be able to recognize "regularities and patterns" in whatever phenomenon one is working with. The method, in it's current state, consists of building a data base and analyzing it, in order to try to uncover sequential and recurring patterns that can be used to predict the phenomenon in the future (if that be possible).
This "Pattern Matching" technique is identical to what we call the "hindcasting" method of astro-meterorology, which entails examining the astronomical configurations that occur at the times of certain events of phenomenon, and projecting any pattern found into the future.
Astro-meteorology is a study of significance that depends on both objective and subjective techniques; utilizing empirical, largely analogue methods. Accepting that what happens on the Earth in regard to meterorological and seismic activity can be effected by the positions and motions of the sun, moon, and planets, astro-meteorologists attempt to extrtact moments of "astronomical significance" from the flux of time, by identifying "significant" astronomical configurations.
Please note that long-range forecasts generated by astro-meteorological research should not be seen as competing with that from people in other areas of concern, but rather an attempt to help extend the range of techniques and procedures at the forecaster's disposal; as well as helping to strengthen confidence in popular analogues, or to indicate where they might be unreliable or ineffective.

1974: Danger from the Tides
Thirty years ago (January 7, 1974), both Time and Newsweek magazines published articles, at the urging of Research Scientist Fergus J. Wood of the National Ocean Survey, warning of the "Danger from the Tides". In the Time article, we see a phrase that will be echoed time and again, after the mainstream media picks up on Wood's ideas, "a relatively rare combination of circumstances".
The daily tides that can be witnessed at the shoreline become exaggerated at the new and full moons each month (known collectively as syzygy, when the sun, moon and the earth all lie in one plane; if they are in one line it is an eclipse), and these "spring" tides are further magnified when the syzygy occurs at the same time as the moon's close approach to the earth (it's perigee). The highest tides occur when a new or full moon is close to the earth when the earth is also close to the sun (the perhelion occurs on January 3rd), during the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere.
Both articles warn of the possibility of coastal flooding around January 8 and February 6-7 (1974), and refer to the March (6-7) 1962 East Coast storm that killed 40 and caused $500 million worth of damage as corroberative evidence of Wood's thesis.
The East Coast of the US saw offshore winds and high pressure on both dates, while giant waves pounded the California shores undermining beach homes on January 8th; England and Wales experienced widespread flooding on January 11-12 and February 9-11.

High Tides, High Winds
Wood's primary focus was tidal flooding of coastlines, and he knew that the tides themselves were not the problem, but rather the chances that the exaggerated tides would be driven inland by strong onshore winds. As a footnote to his warnings on 1974, Wood pointed out that while we cannot be sure that onshore winds would accompany the high tides, storms had accompanied high tides in above average numbers in the past. While he stopped short of proclaiming that the tides caused the high winds, this is what he was hinting at. Others have since spoken of tides in the atmospohere to explain the phenomena.
Wood had compiled a list of 30 hurricanes occuring nearly concurrently with perigean spring tides (between 1635 and 1974), including the Galveston Hurricane which witnessed the greatest loss of lives in American history (as of 1978) on September 8, 1900, to back his proposals.
Fergus Wood's research focuses our attention on the changing dimensions of the sun - moon - earth geometric relationship, and points out that while we cannot always be sure that meteorological disturbances will accompany high tides, it is worth the time to note the times of possible trouble. Upon researching the times of past storm events, Wood announced a "seemingly above average" concurence of high tides and meteorological disturbances.

1978
In 1978, the celestial circumstances of 1974 were repeating themselves, almost exactly. The moon reached it's perigee on January 8 just 16 hours before the new moon on January 9, resulting in a storm that swept from Virginia to Maine, with winds in excess of 70 miles per hour. On the west coast California beaches were hit by severe tidal flooding.
A month later the perigee and new moon were seperated by 42 hours, as the US saw what was called the Storm of the Century, the Blizzard of '78 which stretched from Maine to Texas. Boston saw the most snow in 24 hours, the most snow in a single storm and the most snow on the ground.
Wood's ideas began to take hold in the group consciousness and books began to be published popularizing the perigee-syzygy notion. By now though, the concept became broader so as to include meteorological events in general, especially winter weather.

Perigee-Syzygee Coincidences 1979-1999
In preparing his table of perigee-syzygy coincidences in four centuries ( THE STRATEGIC ROLE OF PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES IN NAUTICAL HISTORY AND NORTH AMERICAN COASTAL FLOODING, 1635-1976", published by NOAA in 1978.) Fergus Wood listed eighty-four between 1979 and 1999, with fourteen identified as "proxigean spring tides", and three identified as "extreme proxigean spring tides". Recall that Wood's focus in this book was Coastal Flooding, and that his list was to serve as a warning about high hazard days, since "proxigean tides can produce severe coastal flooding if accompanied by onshore winds".
He was careful to point out that while he could not predict "whether strong onshore winds will occur within several days of the unusually high tides of these dates", "the seemingly above-average frequency of such concurrent events" in the past was a cause for concern. In other words, Wood was saying that his findings about past coastal flooding events coinciding with proxigean spring tides provided corroborative evidence for his thesis and warranted an alert; and he was willing to test his hypothosis by publishing the list of extreme future tide timings.

Here is that list linked to scanned images of documents which relate to each date (Linked pages will open in a new window.) Recall that the extreme perigees take place only during the months surrounding January 3 in the Northern Hemisphere, when the Earth is nearest the Sun each year.
Note that I have broadened the scope to include severe meteorological events in general.

Proxigean Spring Tides 1979-89
January 28, 1979 - Note that the perigee and syzygy are close to one another (timewise) for three to four months in a row, so while the "peak" event was in January, they were also very close in late December of 78, resulting in the "End of the Year '78 Storm. January 27 saw heavy rains in the southeast, and the 28th a snow storm on the eastern seaboard.
October 23, 1980 - Recall that Wood stated that repeated flooding events often occur within consecutive anomalistic month, and that certain statistical relationship seems to hold between the most severe cases of tidal flooding and the second or third alignment of a given perigee-syzygy series. In December 1980, the third alignment of the series resulted in light snow, but low temps of the century for Christmas.
December 10, 1981 - NOAA supervising meteorologist in Washington DC, Malcolm Reid described the winter of 1981-2 thusly: "The prolonged winter of 1976-7 was more devastating economically, but this has been an unusually harsh period with it's greatest intensity in the six weeks before mid-February.
It began in December, intensified in January, and continued into February, March and April.
Note that the first perigee-syzygee coincidence occurs on December 12th of 2004!
February 17, 1984 - The coldest December on record was followed by the seventh warmest February for the country as a whole since reliable record keeping began in 1931.
November 12, 1985 - This year only the first month of the winter season (December) was characterized by widespread cold over the US; the only snowstorm spread over New England occured on the 12th to 14th of that month.
December 30, 1986 - The first week in January '87 saw flooding on the west coast and a powerful winter storm in the east. The news media finally bwgins to add mentions of the tides in their reports about meteorological events.
October 14, 1989 - In September Hurricane Hugo forms on September 10th, and reaches it's maximum intensity as the full moon (15th) is just 24 hours before the lunar peigee on the 16th, and makes landfall at South Carolina on the 22nd. The World Series Earthquake in California occured on Oct 17th, which was followed by flooding in the southeast US early in November, and record cold beginning December 12th, when the moon was at perigee on the 10th and Full on the 12th. [The media really piles it on about the tides following Hugo.]

Extreme Proxigean Spring Tides 1990-93
December 2,1990 - The first storm of the winter formed on December 2.
January 19, 1992 - First Texas gets rain at the Solstice (Dec 21); nine inches in four days in San Antonio; Mt Etna begins erupting; Isreal and lebanon see blizzards at the beginning of the new year; there is an Atlantic Coast storm the first week of January, Heavy snow in the southeast and northeast on the 18th; and deadly storms on the west coast on Feb 12.
March 8, 1993 - The full moon and perigee are seperated by 1 hour and eleven minutes on the 8th; The Superstorm of the Century occurs March 12-13.

Historical Winter Storms 1962-1999
The following is a list of Historical Winter Storms, taken from the Weather Channel web site, along with the appropriate astronomical data for that time.
1962 Mar 3-7 Both the perigee and the new moon occured on Mar 6.
1967 Jan 26-7 The moon was full Jan26 and was at perigee Jan 28.
1969 Feb 8-10 The perigee occured Feb 14 and the moon was new on Feb 16.
1978 Feb 5-7 Perigee Feb 5 - New Moon Feb 7.
1979 Feb 22 Per Feb 25 - New Feb 26
1983 Feb 12 New Feb 13 - *Apogee Feb 10 [see footnote]
1991 Oct 30 Full Oct 23 - Per Oct 27 Called the Perfect Storm.

1993 Mar 12-3 Per Full Mar 8
1998 Jan 4-9 New Dec 29 - Per Jan 3

Extreme Cold January 1982
In 1982, the perigee (Jan 8) once again coincided closely with the full moon (Jan 9) with a result that was described as the Coldest Day of the Century.

Continue