Winter 2009-10

  • Tides peak twice a day as we cross the line between the center of the earth and the center of the moon. Daily tidal peaks peak twice a month at new and full moons, when the sun, moon and earth are all in one plane. When they are all in a line, an eclipse occurs. Monthly peaks peak twice a year when the moon's monthly close approach to the earth coincides with either a new or full moon. The image below can be used on either of these levels.

    At the macro level, the peaks are seven months apart and occur alternately at new and full moons. These peaks peak on a nine or ten year schedule. In long range terms, the three highest tides between 1985 and 2012 occured Dec 2, 1990, March 8, 1993, and Jan 19, 1992. Number four was Dec 12, 2008; this last year. Number five was Jan 10, 2005 and six and seven will be Mar 19, 2011 and Jan 30, 2010.

    Take a look at the Lunar Perigee Calculator, which gives you new and full moons too. Just enter a date and hit calculate. N+ means before the new moon, N- after the new moon. F+ before FM, F- after FM. The last peak was July 21 when the perigee was N -6h, six hours after a new moon. The one before that was Dec 12, F + 4h. The next peak is January 30, 2010, F + 2h.

    *** The height of the tide will be regulated by how close the sun and moon each are at that time, and we are closest to the sun on January 3rd every year. Look at Jan 1, 2010 on the perigee calculator, and notice that the full moon will be on the 31st, the perigee will be on the first, and we come close to the sun on the 3rd. When tides peak, we can expect a little more than three months of wet weather to follow; we can also expect a precursor event, about two weeks before the peak. If the peak is on the full moon, we expect an event on the previous new moon. As the December full moon is an eclipse and so close to both the solstice and the perihelion, I expect the precursor event there this time (ie., two weeks ahead of schedule).

    *** Looking closer, we notice that the lunation before the peak is also an eclipse, and Venus is on the back side of the sun and earth then. Mercury comes between the sun and the earth on the 4th. This year, as Jupiter conjoined Neptune, earthquakes have happened as the moon passed those two each month. As Saturn is opposite Uranus now, quakes have been occuring when the moon passes Saturn each month. I recommend that the period between the solstice and the moon's conjunction with Jupiter and Neptune in January will be disaster packed just as this period from the new moon in Sept to the full moon in Oct has been.

  • Let's begin at the December Solstice. The moon conjoins Jupiter and Neptune that day, just like it did at the 8.0 quake recently. The 31st will be a lunar eclipse, the perigee is the first, the earth is closest to the sun on the 3rd, and Mercury is between the earth and sun on the 4th. On Jan 6th, the moon conjoins Saturn, which has resulted in quakes recently. The new moon Jan 15th is an eclipse. On Jan 17th, the moon conjoins Jupiter and Neptune again. The tides peak the next full moon.

    This also means that we are approaching the end of the wet weather soon (the bottom of the sine wave in the image above). The October new moon, was the third new moon after the July peak. Were this an ordinary hurricane season, you would expect storms to drop off after that. Speaking of storms, look at the perigee table and see that the second tidal peak next year will be Sept 8th, when hurricane season peaks.

    The next tidal peak will be Jan 30, 2010. Please see this article which describes the Farmer's Almanac prediction for this winter. The Farmers' Almanac gets pretty specific about that late-season blizzard forecast. "February 12th-15th looks very stormy with blizzard conditions possible especially in New England but also going down to the mid-Atlantic coast."

    That would be two weeks after the tidal peak. If you look at the apogee-perigee table, you will see that the perigee is on January 30 and the next apogee is on Feb 13th. Remember that the Olympic flame arrives in Vacouver on the 12th. I repeat my suggestion that chances are good for snow for the Winter Olympic Games there.

    Nasty weather is also in the forecast for late in the season as winter moves toward spring. "It does look like the cool temperatures to the cold temperatures are going to hang on. And spring does look kind of rainy." Tides peaking around Feb 1 means a wet Feb, March and April, with a climaxing event in late April.

  • If you have followed this page or have read the rest at one time, you may recall that I point to something that tidal expert Fergus Wood said about tides and storms that proved very useful. He said that, after studying tides and historic storms, he came to the conclusion that storms appeared to resonate and get stronger at the second and third lunations after the peak. I point out below that in 1980, Mt St Helen's began rumbling in March at the tidal peak, but it erupted at the new moons in May and June. Applying the same logic this year, I had written, if a volcano starts rumbling in July, you could expect it to erupt September 18th, the second new moon after the peak. The October new moon was the third.

    In the image above, the tidal peak is labeled 2, the precursor event two weeks prior to that is labeled 1; 3 is the second lunation after the peak, and 4 is the third. It is suggested that (in general) we see a precursor event two weeks before the peak, something at the peak, and events of increased magnitudes at the second and third months after the peak. We can usually expect some kind of 'climax' to the series, like the large snowfall in the west in late October, or a November hurricane.

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